Early polling finds Frisch, Boebert tied in 2024 race for CD3

Democrat Adam Frisch, left, and Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, right, are running for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District seat. (William Woody for Colorado Newsline)

An early poll shows incumbent U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert and Adam Frisch, the Democrat who came close to unseating the Republican in 2022, in a tie for the seat amid current political conditions.

If the 2024 election were held today with the two candidates, 45% of voters would choose Frisch and 45% would choose Boebert, according to findings from a poll released Tuesday.

The poll, conducted by progressive organizations ProgressNow Colorado and Global Strategy Group, surveyed 500 likely voters and 100 unaffiliated likely voters in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District between March 29 and April 2. It has a 4.4% margin of error.

“Lauren Boebert, in a Republican-leaning district, is tied going into the 2024 presidential election cycle,” ProgressNow Colorado executive direct Sara Loflin said of the results.

The race was unexpectedly close in the 2022 midterms. Boebert, the highly controversial conservative lawmaker, beat Frisch by just 546 votes in the right-leaning district. It was redrawn in the recent redistricting process and favors a Republican candidate by 9 percentage points.

The district encompasses the Western Slope and the southwest corner of the state, sweeping east to include Pueblo, Otero and Las Animas counties.

Primary opponents

Frisch has already started his campaign for the seat in 2024 and raised $1.7 million since mid-February, according to his campaign. That sets the stage for the race to receive national attention — and dollars — as Democrats view Boebert as vulnerable and potentially beatable in a presidential election year with higher expected turnout.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced last week that it will target Boebert in 2024.

Andrew Baumann with GSG said that Frisch will have a clearer path to victory if he can increase his name recognition before 2024. Among voters who knew both Frisch and Boebert, Frisch led by 19 percentage points in the poll.

Among Republicans who described themselves as not very conservative, 60% back Boebert, 24% back Frisch and 16% are undecided. Pollsters said this shows an opportunity for Frisch to gain ground with center-of-right voters who may be disillusioned with Boebert’s extreme politics and who might agree with Frisch’s stance on abortion and economic policies. Frisch painted himself as a moderate last year.

Additionally, the poll found that Boebert’s priorities do not align with those of voters in her district. Respondents listed addressing inflation and protecting Social Security as the two most important issues for Congress to focus on. They put defending former President Donald Trump and self-promotion on social media as the two bottom priorities among those offered by pollsters. Those two issues, however, were the ones respondents ranked as the top priorities Boebert seems to be focused on.

“Voters see Boebert focused on the exact things they don’t want to see her focused on,” Baumann said.

Boebert’s unfavorable rating has grown in the past two years. In March 2021, 39% of respondents had an unfavorable view of her. Now, 50% of them do.

Debby Burnett, who also ran in 2022 but did not make the Democratic primary ballot, is also running in 2024, according to the Pueblo Chieftain. Russ Andrews announced this week he is seeking the Republican nomination, according to The Daily Sentinel.

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